Electric Car Ideas That Are Bound To Fail

October 7, 2009

It seems like just about everyone has a “new idea” that will inevitably make electric cars more popular than those relying on the good old internal combustion engine. Of course, maybe it just seems that there are way too many people trying to reinvent the wheel, because at every function I go to there’s someone telling me about another company or individual who is going to revolutionize electric cars.

Let’s get something straight here folks – there haven’t been any discontinuous innovations in the electric car in over 100 years. There haven’t been any important continuous innovations in nearly 100 years. Even the gas-electric hybrid with regenerative braking was developed when a very famous dead guy, Ferdinand Porsche, was a very young, very alive engineer for Lohner.

Blame low gas prices and Cadillac’s introduction of the electric starter for all of this. Prior to the debut of Kettering’s self-starter as standard equipment for the “Standard of the World” automaker in 1912, thousands of people drove electric cars. Not coincidentally, 1912 was the peak year for sales of electric vehicles. In fact, electric cars were a larger percentage of the market in 1910 than now.

Demographically speaking, most electric car owners/drivers were urban women who used the cars for shopping. Considering that starting a car used to require a strong pull on a large crank while standing directly in front of the vehicle, it is not surprising that women tended to like the quiet reliability of flipping a switch inside an electric car. As for the quiet, powerful steam cars – these often took nearly a half-hour to warm up, after which the right set of circumstances could set the whole system on fire like Nikki Sixx’s boots during early Motley Crue concerts.

It’s only recently that companies have again thought about electric cars. Since people aren’t really that interested in history, they’ve decided to reinvent the wheel or bark up trees that have long been deemed worthless.

Here are some of the “revolutionary” ideas about which people have told me while at dinners or other functions:

The “battery swap” concept: There are a lot of people trying to do this, but the most visible is from Shai Agassi, an Israeli guy who believes that the key to electric car acceptance is to have battery stations where motorists simply pull out the depleted tray of batteries in their cars and swap for charged batteries. Sounds like a great way to overcome the range issue, right? It’s just like barbeque propane tanks – when you’re out you swap, correct?

No – not really. In fact, the relationships of car versus propane tank is about as valid as the shared characteristics of Rush Limbaugh and Anne Hathaway. I have a better shot of winning the Formula One Driver’s Championship and America’s Top Model in the same year than this becoming a reality.

Let’s tackle the minor challenges first:

  • Unlike propane tanks, batteries – even lithium ion (or any yet-to-be invented cell made out of a combination of unobtanium and whatever pops out of a moon crater explosion) lose quality over time. You drop off your perfectly good new batteries and possibly get a tray of old crappy ones in return. Instead of getting a 50-mile range, you get 18 miles and the oh-no light comes on – which, incidentally, you scream at, because this warning light is taking much needed juice away from propelling your ass back to scream at the place that gave you these used-up batteries in the first place.

  • Distribution: Then you have to find a station with batteries. Not only are battery packs much, much, much more expensive than metal propane tanks, but also they are a lot heavier and more space-consuming. Don’t think that every Kwick-E-Mart is going to invest in a large extra building and employ another foreign-born better-educated-than-your-average-banker worker to lug 200-pound battery packs all day.

Now, it’s time to bring up the toughest barrier:

  • Standardization: As it stands, no single electric car or hybrid shares the same battery type/number, connectors (and most importantly) packaging with another non-badge-engineered vehicle. For instance, Tesla uses thousands of modified laptop battery cells, which is totally different from the dozens of lead-acid batteries in many of the electric tin-can commuter boxes I see around my parts of town. Considering that automakers have found six different ways of manually shifting an automatic (push up on a stick to upshift, pull down on a stick to upshift, push right on a stick to upshift, pull the right paddle to upshift, push the right button on a steering wheel to upshift, or BMW’s push either thumb paddle to upshift – not to mention the 7-Series unique one-button to downshift) ever expecting the companies to unite and tackle the almost impossible task of standardizing on a single battery technology that fits (and complies with safety regulations) in everything from an SUV to a sports car is about as big of an ask as requesting your spouse arrange for your birthday a three-way with you, her and the entire San Diego Chargers’ cheerleading squad.

“Electric Car Only” Charge-While-You Shop Parking Spaces: Some companies exist to print signs and install charging stations for restaurants, coffee shops and grocery stores. In some cases, these charging stations are little more than standard outlets. In any event, even with high-voltage charging stations, most cars get little more than a mile’s worth of juice in a standard ten-minute excursion into a store. If it’s a 110-volt outlet, ten minutes on the charger won’t give any electric car enough juice to make it out of the parking lot! In other words – it’s snake oil, which might explain why the nutritional supplement store I passed the other day had one such spot.

And before you write in and talk about real high-voltage charging stations in office parking garages and park-and-ride lots: yes, these are great ideas. I do a) believe they need to be installed and b) predict that their adoption and use will be proportional to increases in peak electricity charges and brownouts in California.

The Back-Alley “Plug-In” Conversion: A friend of mine is renting space in his warehouse to a company that expects to get rich installing plug-in electric engines into existing new cars. My advice was to get as much rent up front as possible.

Where to start with this? First, these guys void the new car manufacturer’s warranty. Second, low production – no matter how careful, means poor quality control. Finally, the result is a shorter range at a higher cost per mile than the new car prior to removing the gas engine.

There are some businesses doing decent plug-in conversions for the Prius. Their corporate lifespan is limited, though, since Toyota has already committed to creating plug-in hybrids of its own.

At the end of the day, the only thing that will improve the acceptance of the electric car is to cure what killed it in the first place: range. These small companies will exist in the margins for a year or two more, but then the Chevy Volt technology will certainly kill most of them. I say Volt “technology” rather than just the Volt itself, because the plug-in engine/motor that is the basis of the Volt model will be used in all of GM’s front-wheel-drive vehicles.

When consumers can buy a single car that goes 40 miles on electric and then also go 350 miles on single tank of gas (plus fill up at any existing gas station to continue), it accomplishes what electric cars never could: kill two birds with one stone. The Volt will give electric-only benefits for those who want it without forcing them to exchange batteries, get some shadetree-mechanic conversion…or also own a standard car if they need to go on a road trip.

The Volt might not be that huge of a jump in technology, especially given what the industry had 100 years ago, but it’s a good small step in the right direction that will result in large change in gas prices (good), electric prices (bad), electric production challenges (really bad), and domestic automotive industry growth (very good). It might do very little for the environment, as production of electricity is like Mother Earth smoking ten packs a day and occasionally shooting heroin with the odd nuclear plant. At least it makes oil production a little less important on the world stage.

Advertisements

Chevy Volt’s 230-mpg EPA rating makes even new CAFE standards obsolete

August 11, 2009

When I had dinner last year with a group of GM executives, Bob Lutz talked at great length about the Chevy Volt. During one part of the discussion where Lutz was complaining about adverse affects of legislators increasing CAFE standards, we had a back and forth regarding the fact that the Volt could conceivably be rated at somewhere between 100mpg and 200mpg by the EPA…hence making those increasing standards moot.

GM announced today that the Volt will likely be rated at 230mpg in city driving. Seeing that, according to Lutz, GM plans to standardize all front-wheel-drive vehicles on the Volt technology (and we have no reason to doubt this strategy), worrying about the new CAFE requirements will be for not.

While the EPA ratings have never been Sandy Koufax-accurate, they have been a good predictor of expected economy. Unfortunately, with the rise in electrical Kwh prices due to millions of plug-in hybrids hitting the grid, they might not be such a great predictor of what the Volt and other future plug-ins might realistically cost to run. But let’s not fret about this today…this is the time to give the 800-pound gorilla plenty of “atta-boy”s for another step in the process of creating a true game changer.

Here’s the release:

WARREN, Mich. – The Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric vehicle is expected to achieve city fuel economy of at least 230 miles per gallon, based on development testing using a draft EPA federal fuel economy methodology for labeling for plug-in electric vehicles.

The Volt, which is scheduled to start production in late 2010 as a 2011 model, is expected to travel up to 40 miles on electricity from a single battery charge and be able to extend its overall range to more than 300 miles with its flex fuel-powered engine-generator.

“From the data we’ve seen, many Chevy Volt drivers may be able to be in pure electric mode on a daily basis without having to use any gas,” said GM Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson. “EPA labels are a yardstick for customers to compare the fuel efficiency of vehicles. So, a vehicle like the Volt that achieves a composite triple-digit fuel economy is a game-changer.”

According to U.S. Department of Transportation data, nearly eight of 10 Americans commute fewer than 40 miles a day http://tinyurl.com/U-S-DOTStudy .

“The key to high-mileage performance is for a Volt driver to plug into the electric grid at least once each day,” Henderson said.
Volt drivers’ actual gas-free mileage will vary depending on how far they travel and other factors, such as how much cargo or how many passengers they carry and how much the air conditioner or other accessories are used. Based on the results of unofficial development testing of pre-production prototypes, the Volt has achieved 40 miles of electric-only, petroleum-free driving in both EPA city and highway test cycles.

Under the new methodology being developed, EPA weights plug-in electric vehicles as traveling more city miles than highway miles on only electricity. The EPA methodology uses kilowatt hours per 100 miles traveled to define the electrical efficiency of plug-ins. Applying EPA’s methodology, GM expects the Volt to consume as little as 25 kilowatt hours per 100 miles in city driving. At the U.S. average cost of electricity (approximately 11 cents per kWh), a typical Volt driver would pay about $2.75 for electricity to travel 100 miles, or less than 3 cents per mile.
The Chevrolet Volt uses grid electricity as its primary source of energy to propel the car. There are two modes of operation: Electric and Extended-Range. In electric mode, the Volt will not use gasoline or produce tailpipe emissions when driving. During this primary mode of operation, the Volt is powered by electrical energy stored in its 16 kWh lithium-ion battery pack.

When the battery reaches a minimum state of charge, the Volt automatically switches to Extended-Range mode. In this secondary mode of operation, an engine-generator produces electricity to power the vehicle. The energy stored in the battery supplements the engine-generator when additional power is needed during heavy accelerations or on steep inclines.

“The 230 city mpg number is a great indication of the capabilities of the Volt’s electric propulsion system and its ability to displace gasoline,” said Frank Weber, global vehicle line executive for the Volt. “Actual testing with production vehicles will occur next year closer to vehicle launch. However, we are very encouraged by this development, and we also think that it is important to continue to share our findings in real time, as we have with other aspects of the Volt’s development.”